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Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability. Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

机译：迈向全球干旱预警能力。扩大国际合作以发展监测和预报框架

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Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%–13% over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approachthat is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information atglobal scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWF is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.
机译：就农业生产力，饮用水供应和经济活动的减少而言，干旱在整个历史上对文明产生了重大影响，在极端情况下，这导致了饥荒。每个大陆都有半干旱地区，特别容易受到干旱的影响。政府间气候变化专门委员会指出，在中低纬度的一些干旱和半干旱地区，预计年均河流径流和水供应量将减少10％–13％，干旱的频率，强度和持续时间将增加及其相关的影响。问题的严重性要求努力从过去的被动式危机管理方法转变为更积极主动的风险管理方法，以减少干旱的脆弱性，该方法以尽可能减少干旱的脆弱性为中心，同时提供干旱预警。不断变化的干旱条件及其可能的影响。不幸的是，许多国家没有足够的资源来提供预警，但是需要外部支持才能为风险管理提供必要的预警信息。此外，在一个相互联系的世界中，全球范围内对信息的需求对于理解农业生产力下降的前景以及对食品价格，粮食安全和内乱的可能性的相关影响至关重要。本文着重介绍了最近在建立全球干旱预警监测框架（GDEWF），基础合作伙伴关系和框架以及其可互操作信息系统即全球干旱预警系统（GDEWS）方面所取得的进展，以及已经开始的组织共同努力使它成为现实。 GDEWF旨在通过增加全球组成部分，促进大陆监测和预报（如果缺乏）并在各种规模上改进这些工具，从而提高现有区域和国家干旱监测和预报能力，从而提高缺乏干旱的国家和区域机构的能力预警系统或现有系统的补充。进一步的目标是加强信息传递在全世界与干旱有关的活动和救济工作中的协调。这对于干旱预警能力低的地区和国家尤其重要。为此，需要建立全球伙伴关系，利用必要的资源并在全球范围内发展能力，例如将全球干旱预报与预警工具相结合，进行全球实时监控，并采用统一的方法来确定易受干旱影响的关键地区。尽管建立GDEWF的功能之路充满挑战，但干旱，预报，农业和水循环社区中的多个合作伙伴和组织仍致力于实现其成功。

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